Trump at Rally in Florida
US President Donald Trump holds a Make America Great Again rally as he campaigns at Orlando Sanford International Airport in Sanford, Florida, October 12, 2020. (Photo by SAUL LOEB / AFP) (Photo by SAUL LOEB/AFP via Getty Images)

In the state of Florida, former Vice President Joe Biden has a narrow two-point lead over President Trump. The latest PoliticalIQ.com poll in the state shows Biden attracting 48% of the vote while Trump has support from 46%. The survey, conducted by Scott Rasmussen, shows that 3% plan to vote for some other candidate and 4% are not sure.

Turnout is always difficult predict in a poll. It is especially difficult to project during an unprecedented pandemic. As a result, all PoliticalIQ.com polls are released with three separate turnout models—a baseline projection, a Strong Republican Turnout model, and a Strong Democratic Turnout model. This approach highlights the reality that modest differences in turnout can have a very significant impact on election results.

The Strong Republican Turnout model shows President Trump narrowly winning the Sunshine State’s Electoral College votes by a single point: 47% to 46%. Alternatively, if Democratic turnout is stronger than the baseline projection, Biden would win comfortably by six points, 50% to 44%.

PoliticalIQ.com will be releasing new Battleground State polls every weekday until Election Day.

·       The president leads by 18 points among White voters (57% to 39%). However, he attracts only 11% of Black Voters and trails by 21 among Hispanic voters (56% to 35%). 

·       Both candidates are supported by roughly nine-out-of-ten voters from their own party. Biden leads by 12 among Independent voters.

Florida is considered a must-win state for President Trump. With 29 Electoral Votes, it is the largest of the states rated a Toss-Up by Real Clear Politics. Without Florida, there is no plausible path to victory for the president.

Methodology

The survey of 800 Likely Florida Voters was conducted by Scott Rasmussen from October 4-8, 2020. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Respondents were randomly selected from a list of Registered Voters and contacted via text or through a process of Random Digital Engagement. The Likely Voter sample was derived from a larger sample of Registered Voters using screening questions and other factors. Certain quotas were applied to the larger sample and lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

Forty-one percent (41%) of the Likely Voters either identify as Republican or Lean Republican. Thirty-eight percent (38%) either identify as a Democrat or Lean Democrat. Twenty-one percent (21%) do not identify with either major party.