Trump and Biden
(Photos by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images and by SAUL LOEB/AFP via Getty Images; Collage by PoliticalIQ)

In North Carolina, former Vice President Joe Biden holds a slim two-point lead over President Trump with three weeks left before election day. PoliticalIQ’s latest poll shows 47% of Likely North Carolina voters voting for Biden, while 45% support Trump. The survey, conducted by Scott Rasmussen, shows that 4% support other candidates and 5% say they are not sure.

With early voting in North Carolina about to begin, turnout will be vital in deciding who walks away with the state’s 15 Electoral Votes. As such, PoliticalIQ polls are released with three separate turnout models – Baseline, Strong Republican Turnout, and Strong Democratic Turnout. This approach incorporates how modest differences in turnout can significantly impact election results.

In the case of North Carolina, a Strong Republican Turnout would result in President Trump winning the Tar Heel State by three points, 47% to 44%. A Strong Democratic Turnout paves the way for Biden to win comfortably, 49%- 43%.

PoliticalIQ will be releasing new Battleground State Polls every weekday between now and Election Day. In 2016, President Trump beat Hillary Clinton by 3% in North Carolina, and this year the state appears to be even more hotly contested.

Methodology

The survey of 800 Likely North Carolina Voters was conducted by Scott Rasmussen from October 7-11, 2020. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Respondents were randomly selected from a list of Registered Voters and contacted via text or through a process of Random Digital Engagement. The Likely Voter sample was derived from a larger sample of Registered Voters using screening questions and other factors. Certain quotas were applied to the larger sample and lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, and political party to reasonably reflect the state’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

Thirty-two percent (32%) of the Likely Voters either identify as Republican or Lean Republican. Thirty-six percent (36%) either identify as a Democrat or Lean Democrat. Thirty-two percent (32%) do not identify with either major party.