Joe Biden Campaign
ERIE, PA OCTOBER 10, 2020: Former Vice President and presidential nominee Joe Biden gives remarks at UA Plumbers Local 27 Erie Training Center in Erie, PA on October 10, 2020. (Photo by Demetrius Freeman/The Washington Post via Getty Images)

In the pivotal state of Pennsylvania, former Vice President Joe Biden has a six-point lead over President Trump with less than three weeks until the election. The latest PoliticalIQ.com poll, conducted by Scott Rasmussen, shows Biden with 49% of the vote, while Trump is attracting 43% of the vote. Just 2% plan to vote for some other candidate, and 6% are not sure.

Voter turnout will be vital in determining the next President of the United States. As such, all PoliticalIQ.com polls are released with three separate turnout models—a baseline projection, a Strong Republican Turnout model, and a Strong Democratic Turnout model. This approach shows how heavy turnout for one candidate could affect results.

In the case of Pennsylvania, The Strong Republican Turnout model shows Vice President Joe Biden still retaining a slim 2-point lead for President, 47% to 45%. Pennsylvania women account for the result in this model, with 49% voting for Biden and 43% voting for Trump. In The Strong Republican Turnout, 48% of men endorse Trump, while 44% prefer Biden. Alternatively, if Democratic turnout is stronger than the baseline projection, Biden would win comfortably by eight points, 50% to 42%.

PoliticalIQ.com will be releasing new Battleground State polls every weekday until Election Day. The Keystone State is considered a key to victory for both candidates, with 20 Electoral Votes at stake.

Methodology

The survey of 800 Likely Pennsylvania Voters was conducted by Scott Rasmussen from October 7-12, 2020. Fieldwork for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Respondents were randomly selected from a list of Registered Voters and contacted via text or through a process of Random Digital Engagement. The Likely Voter sample was derived from a larger sample of Registered Voters using screening questions and other factors. Certain quotas were applied to the larger sample and lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, and political party to reasonably reflect the state’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

Forty-two percent (42%) of the Likely Voters either identify as Republican or Lean Republican. Forty-six percent (46%) either identify as a Democrat or Lean Democrat. Twelve percent (12%) do not identify with either major party.


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