US President Donald Trump leaves after holding a Make America Great Again rally as he campaigns at John Murtha Johnstown-Cambria County Airport in Johnstown, Pennsylvania, October 13, 2020
TOPSHOT - US President Donald Trump leaves after holding a Make America Great Again rally as he campaigns at John Murtha Johnstown-Cambria County Airport in Johnstown, Pennsylvania, October 13, 2020. (Photo by SAUL LOEB / AFP) (Photo by SAUL LOEB/AFP via Getty Images)

Four PoliticalIQ polls in Battleground States show a race for the White House that remains competitive.

Former Vice President Joe Biden leads narrowly in all four– Florida, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. However, with a slightly stronger than expected Republican turnout, President Trump would take the lead in Florida and North Carolina. 

The president won all four states in 2016. Florida, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania are considered the must-win U.S. States for his re-election bid.  

Given the difficulty in projecting turnout amid an unprecedented pandemic, PoliticalIQ releases three separate turnout models for all election polls– Baseline, Strong Republican Turnout, and Strong Democratic Turnout. This approach incorporates how modest differences in turnout can significantly impact election results. One particular challenge involves estimating the number of mail-in votes that will be cast. Those who plan to vote by mail overwhelmingly prefer Biden over Trump. Therefore, the larger the number of votes cast by mail, the better it is for the Democrat. 

If the race remains close, this has the potential to create a crisis of legitimacy for whoever wins. Suppose the race tightens in the coming weeks. In that case, Scott Rasmussen says we might “not know the winner of the presidential election until Thanksgiving or later. We also won’t know who won control of the U.S. Senate, dozens of U.S. House seats, and control of several state legislatures. Simply put, there will be chaos.”

Scott Rasmussen is conducting additional PoliticalIQ polls in the Battleground states of Montana, Iowa, and Wisconsin.