PHOENIX, ARIZONA - OCTOBER 06: Democratic challenger Mark Kelly arrives to debate U.S. Sen. Martha McSally, R-Ariz. at the Walter Cronkite School of Journalism at Arizona State University on October 6, 2020 in Phoenix, Arizona. (Photo by Rob Schumacher-Pool/Getty Images)

In exactly two weeks millions of Americans will be lining up at the ballot box, and in addition to the Presidency, control of the US Senate will also be up for grabs.  In the key state of Arizona, the Democratic challenger is now comfortably leading the incumbent Republican.  Among Likely Arizona Voters, Democrat Mark Kelly is leading Republican Martha McSally 46% to 39%. The PoliticalIQ survey, conducted by Scott Rasmussen, has 6% voting for someone else and 9% undecided, with the margin of error at 3.5%.  

Given the difficulty of projecting turnout amidst an unprecedented pandemic, Rasmussen’s PoliticalIQ polls release three separate turnout models – Baseline, Strong Republican Turnout, and Strong Democratic Turnout.  This approach incorporates how modest differences in turnout can significantly impact election results.

In the race for Arizona Senate, each of these models points to the Democrat as winning. McSally trails even in the Strong Republican turnout model, losing to Kelly 44%-40%.  This poll is one of many making it appear likely that the Democrats will take control of the US Senate.

PoliticalIQ will be releasing new Battleground State Polls every weekday between now and Election Day, with Wisconsin next up.  McSally lost her 2018 Senate bid to Democrat Kyrsten Sinema, but was appointed Senator following the death of John McCain and the resignation of Senator Jon Kyl.

Methodology

The survey of 800 Likely Arizona Voters was conducted by Scott Rasmussen from October 14-19, 2020. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Respondents were randomly selected from a list of Registered Voters and contacted via text or through a process of Random Digital Engagement. The Likely Voter sample was derived from a larger sample of Registered Voters using screening questions and other factors. Certain quotas were applied to the larger sample and lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, and political party to reasonably reflect the state’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

Thirty-eight percent (38%) of the Likely Voters either identify as Republican or Lean Republican. Thirty-five percent (35%) either identify as a Democrat or Lean Democrat. Twenty-seven percent (27%) do not identify with either major party.

The margin of sampling error for the full sample is +/- 3.5 percentage points.