EAGLE GROVE, IA - MAY 17: An Iowa state flag flies near the entrance to a farm operated by Daybreak Foods which has been designated "bio security area" on May 17, 2015 near Eagle Grove, Iowa. Daybreak Foods is one of several large-scale commercial poultry facilities is Iowa reported to have been hit with a highly pathogenic strain of avian influenza which has forced poultry producers to kill off millions of birds in an attempt to stifle the spread of the illness. (Photo by Scott Olson/Getty Images)

It’s dead even in Iowa. The latest PolitialIQ poll shows Likely Iowa Voters are evenly split on their preference for President, with 47% in favor of President Trump and 47% backing former Vice President Joe Biden.  The poll, conducted by Scott Rasmussen, shows 2% voting for someone else and 4% unsure.  The margin of error is 3.5%

Iowa joins FL, NC and AZ as key states the President needs to win. While tied in Iowa, the President is trailing narrowly in the other key states. All eyes will be on tonight’s debate to see if that moves the needle one way or another.  If it materially moves the race in the president’s direction, he would likely win all of these four key states and draw close in PA, WI, and MI.

Voter turnout will also be key in determining the next President of the United States.  As such, all PoliticalIQ.com polls are released with three separate turnout models—a baseline projection, a Strong Republican Turnout model, and a Strong Democratic Turnout model. This approach shows how heavy turnout for one candidate could affect results.  In the case of the Hawkeye State, the party that turns out the strongest will give the overall edge to its candidate.   

PoliticalIQ.com will have more from the Iowa survey tomorrow, including how the race is shaping up between Senator Joni Ernst and Democratic Challenger Theresa Greenfield.  In 2016, Trump beat Hillary Clinton in Iowa by almost 10%. Iowa has 6 Electoral Votes.

Methodology

The survey of 800 Likely Iowa Voters was conducted by Scott Rasmussen from October 15-21, 2020. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Most respondents were randomly selected from a list of Registered Voters and contacted via text or through a process of Random Digital Engagement. A total of 111 were contacted using automated phone polling techniques. The Likely Voter sample was derived from a larger sample of Registered Voters using screening questions and other factors. Certain quotas were applied to the larger sample and lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, and political party to reasonably reflect the state’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

Thirty-eight percent (38%) of the Likely Voters either identify as Republican or Lean Republican. Thirty-two percent (32%) either identify as a Democrat or Lean Democrat. Thirty percent (30%) do not identify with either major party.

The margin of sampling error for the full sample is +/- 3.5 percentage points.