MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN - OCTOBER 20: Residents vote at the Bay View Library on October 20, 2020 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Today is the first day of early voting in Wisconsin, which is considered a battleground state for the 2020 presidential election. (Photo by Scott Olson/Getty Images)

In the Battleground state of Wisconsin, Likely Voters show former Vice President Joe Biden leading with less than two weeks left to go in the election.  The latest PolitcalIQ survey shows Biden with a six point lead over President Trump. That’s well within the survey’s margin of error of 3.5%. The poll, conducted by Scott Rasmussen, shows 3% plan to vote for some other candidate and 4% are not sure.

Voter turnout will be key in determining the next President of the United States.  As such, all PoliticalIQ.com polls are released with three separate turnout models—a baseline projection, a Strong Republican Turnout model, and a Strong Democratic Turnout model. This approach shows how heavy turnout for one candidate could affect results.

In the case of the Badger State, even in The Strong Republican Turnout model, Biden maintains his lead 48%-45%.  If Democratic turnout is strong, then Biden would comfortably lead by 10 points. 

PoliticalIQ.com will be releasing Iowa results later today, prior to tonight’s final Presidential Debate.  In 2016, Trump beat Hillary Clinton in Wisconsin by less than 1%. Wisconsin has 10 Electoral Votes.

Methodology

The survey of 800 Likely Wisconsin Voters was conducted by Scott Rasmussen from October 14-20, 2020. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Most respondents were randomly selected from a list of Registered Voters and contacted via text or through a process of Random Digital Engagement. A total of 142 were contacted using automated phone polling techniques. The Likely Voter sample was derived from a larger sample of Registered Voters using screening questions and other factors. Certain quotas were applied to the larger sample and lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, and political party to reasonably reflect the state’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

Thirty-nine percent (39%) of the Likely Voters either identify as Republican or Lean Republican. Thirty-six percent (36%) either identify as a Democrat or Lean Democrat. Twenty-five percent (25%) do not identify with either major party.

The margin of sampling error for the full sample is +/- 3.5 percentage points.