Democratic Challenger Theresa Greenfield maintains a modest lead in her race for Senate against Republican incumbent Joni Ernst.  With less than two weeks to go until the election, the latest PoliticalIQ poll of Likely Iowa Voters shows Greenfield with 46% of the vote and Ernst with 43%.  The survey, conducted by Scott Rasmussen, shows 3% voting for some other candidate and 7% unsure. The margin of error is 3.5%.

Given the difficulty of projecting turnout amidst a pandemic, Rasmussen’s PoliticalIQ polls release three separate turnout models – Baseline, Strong Republican Turnout, and Strong Democratic Turnout.  This approach incorporates how modest differences in turnout can significantly impact election results.

In the case of a strong Republican turnout, the race becomes a tie – 45% to 45%. Alternatively, in a strong Democratic turnout, Greenfield stretches her lead to 7 points, 48% to 41%.  In 2014, Ernst beat Democratic challenger Bruce Baley by 8% points.

Next up, PoliticalIQ.com will see how the Battleground States view the nomination of Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court.  We’ll also have additional state polls as we move into the final stretch of the election. In 2016, Trump beat Hillary Clinton in Iowa by almost 10%. Iowa has 6 Electoral Votes.

Methodology

The survey of 800 Likely Iowa Voters was conducted by Scott Rasmussen from October 15-21, 2020. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Most respondents were randomly selected from a list of Registered Voters and contacted via text or through a process of Random Digital Engagement. A total of 111 were contacted using automated phone polling techniques. The Likely Voter sample was derived from a larger sample of Registered Voters using screening questions and other factors. Certain quotas were applied to the larger sample and lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, and political party to reasonably reflect the state’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

Thirty-eight percent (38%) of the Likely Voters either identify as Republican or Lean Republican. Thirty-two percent (32%) either identify as a Democrat or Lean Democrat. Thirty percent (30%) do not identify with either major party.

The margin of sampling error for the full sample is +/- 3.5 percentage points.