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In Montana, Republican Greg Gianforte and Democrat Mike Cooney are in a tight race for Governor.  The latest PolitialIQ poll shows Gianforte with the support of 48% of Likely Montana Voters and Cooney with the support of 45%.  Gianforte’s lead is within the margin of error of 3.5%.  The poll, conducted by Scott Rasmussen, shows 2% voting for someone else and 4% unsure. 

Gianforte currently occupies Montana’s sole Congressional Seat.  He is a former technology entrepreneur and one of the wealthiest members of Congress.  Cooney is the State’s Lieutenant Governor, who was appointed by the current Governor Steve Bullock in 2016.  Bullock is now running in a close race for Montana Senate.

Voter turnout will be an important factor in determining the next Governor of Montana.  As such, all PoliticalIQ.com polls are released with three separate turnout models—a baseline projection, a Strong Republican Turnout model, and a Strong Democratic Turnout model. This approach shows how heavy turnout for one candidate could affect results.

In the case of a Strong Republican Turnout, Gianforte broadens his lead to 7%.  But in the case of a Strong Democratic Turnout, Cooney takes a slight lead 47% to 46%. In the race for President in Montana, the latest PolitialIQ poll shows 50% in favor of President Trump, with 46% supporting Biden

PoliticalIQ.com will have more from the Montana survey later this weekend, including a bit of a surprise in the race for Montana’s lone Congressional seat.  In 2016, Trump beat Hillary Clinton in Montana by nearly 20%. Iowa has 3 Electoral Votes.

Methodology

The survey of 800 Likely Montana Voters was conducted by Scott Rasmussen from October 15-18, 2020. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Respondents were randomly selected from a list of Registered Voters and contacted via text or through a process of Random Digital Engagement. The Likely Voter sample was derived from a larger sample of Registered Voters using screening questions and other factors. Certain quotas were applied to the larger sample and lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, and political party to reasonably reflect the state’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

Forty-two percent (42%) of the Likely Voters either identify as Republican or Lean Republican. Thirty-two percent (32%) either identify as a Democrat or Lean Democrat. Twenty-six percent (26%) do not identify with either major party.

The margin of sampling error for the full sample is +/- 3.5 percentage points.