Close-up of hand flipping coin

It’s a toss-up for Montana’s sole United States Congressional Seat. The latest PolitialIQ poll shows Democrat Kathleen Williams and Republican Matt Rosendale tied with 47% of Likely Montana Voters.  The poll, conducted by Scott Rasmussen, shows 2% prefer someone else and 4% are unsure.  The margin of error is 3.5%.

Rosendale is currently serving as Montana’s State Auditor.  Williams has long been active in the state’s Democratic party. In 2018, she lost the Montana House Race to Republican Greg Gianforte, who is currently running in a close race for Governor

Voter turnout will be a key factor in determining the next US Representative from Montana.  As such, all PoliticalIQ.com polls are released with three separate turnout models—a baseline projection, a Strong Republican Turnout model, and a Strong Democratic Turnout model. This approach shows how heavy turnout for one candidate could affect results. In the race for Montana’s House seat, each candidate takes a 49% to 45% lead if their party turns out the strongest.

As we head into the last full week of campaign season, PoliticalIQ.com will have more from key Battleground States including the latest from Florida tomorrow.  Elsewhere in Montana President Trump maintains a modest lead for President, and in the campaign for Senate, Republican Steve Daines holds a slim lead against Democrat Steve Bullock.

Methodology

The survey of 800 Likely Montana Voters was conducted by Scott Rasmussen from October 15-18, 2020. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Respondents were randomly selected from a list of Registered Voters and contacted via text or through a process of Random Digital Engagement. The Likely Voter sample was derived from a larger sample of Registered Voters using screening questions and other factors. Certain quotas were applied to the larger sample and lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, and political party to reasonably reflect the state’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

Forty-two percent (42%) of the Likely Voters either identify as Republican or Lean Republican. Thirty-two percent (32%) either identify as a Democrat or Lean Democrat. Twenty-six percent (26%) do not identify with either major party.

The margin of sampling error for the full sample is +/- 3.5 percentage points.