TOPSHOT - (COMBO) This combination of pictures created on September 29, 2020 shows Democratic Presidential candidate and former US Vice President Joe Biden (L) and US President Donald Trump speaking during the first presidential debate at the Case Western Reserve University and Cleveland Clinic in Cleveland, Ohio on September 29, 2020. (Photos by JIM WATSON and SAUL LOEB / AFP) (Photo by JIM WATSON,SAUL LOEB/AFP via Getty Images)

It’s too close to call in North Carolina. The latest PoliticalIQ of Likely North Carolina Voters shows just one point separating the Presidential candidates, with Former Vice President Joe Biden at 48% and President Trump at 47%.  President Trump picked up one point from earlier polling.  The survey, conducted by Scott Rasmussen, shows 3% voting for some another candidate and 2% unsure. 

This post-debate poll confirms other national polling showing limited impact from the final debate last Thursday.   This survey also reflects national trends around education.  Those without a college degree continue to strongly support President Trump, in the case of North Carolina, 56 – 41%.

Turnout is always difficult predict in a poll, especially in the case of a surging pandemic. As a result, all PoliticalIQ.com polls are released with three separate turnout models—a baseline projection, a Strong Republican Turnout model, and a Strong Democratic Turnout model. This approach highlights the reality that modest differences in turnout can have a very significant impact on election results.

In North Carolina, the Strong Republican Turnout model shows President Trump narrowly winning the Tar Heel State by two points: 49% to 47%. If Democratic turnout is stronger than baseline, Biden would win by four points, 50% to 46%.

A Senate Seat in North Carolina is also up for grabs.  We’ll have the latest on that race tomorrow morning.  In addition, PoliticalIQ.com will be releasing Wave 2 poll results from Battleground States up thru Election Day. In 2016, President Trump beat Hillary Clinton by 3% in North Carolina, and this year the state appears to be even more hotly contested.

METHODOLOGY

The survey of 800 Likely North Carolina Voters was conducted by Scott Rasmussen from October 24-26, 2020. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Most respondents were randomly selected from a list of Registered Voters and contacted via text or through a process of Random Digital Engagement. A total of 49 were contacted using automated phone polling techniques. The Likely Voter sample was derived from a larger sample of Registered Voters using screening questions and other factors. Certain quotas were applied to the larger sample and lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, and political party to reasonably reflect the state’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

Thirty-five percent (35%) of the Likely Voters either identify as Republican or Lean Republican. Thirty-six percent (36%) either identify as a Democrat or Lean Democrat. Twenty-nine percent (29%) do not identify with either major party.

The margin of sampling error for the full sample is +/- 3.5 percentage points.