UKRAINE - 2020/10/23: In this photo illustration the US President Donald Trump and Democratic presidential candidate and former US Vice President Joe Biden are seen during the final presidential debate displayed on a screen of a smartphone. The final presidential debate between President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden took place at Belmont University in Nashville, the U.S. on Thursday, October 22. United States presidential election scheduled for November 3, 2020. (Photo Illustration by Pavlo Conchar/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images)

After the debate, President Trump’s campaign was hopeful that former Vice President Biden’s comments about the oil industry would shake things up in Pennsylvania. However, the latest Political IQ poll of the race shows little change. 

Our post-debate polls shows Biden winning 51% of the vote while Trump earns support from 45%. Prior to the debate, our polling also showed the Democrat with a six point advantage. 

Biden leads by a 61% to 35% margin in the Philadelphia area. The president leads by 8 in the rest of the state.

As with all Political IQ polls, we are releasing three turnout models for our Battleground State coverage. Even with the Strong Republican Turnout Model, the president trails by two points. That’s close enough to mount a comeback, but the latest numbers suggest it will be an uphill battle for the president.

PoliticalIQ will be releasing the latest polls from key states up thru Election Day.  Up next, Texas and Michigan.

METHODOLOGY

The survey of 800 Likely Pennsylvania Voters was conducted by Scott Rasmussen from October 25-27, 2020. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Most respondents were randomly selected from a list of Registered Voters and contacted via text or through a process of Random Digital Engagement. A total of 102 were contacted using automated phone polling techniques. The Likely Voter sample was derived from a larger sample of Registered Voters using screening questions and other factors. Certain quotas were applied to the larger sample and lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, and political party to reasonably reflect the state’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

Forty-one percent (41%) of the Likely Voters either identify as Republican or Lean Republican. Forty-two percent (42%) either identify as a Democrat or Lean Democrat. Seventeen percent (17%) do not identify with either major party.

The margin of sampling error for the full sample is +/- 3.5 percentage points.