Trump-Biden
(Photo by Scott Olson/Getty Images) / (Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images) collage by PoliticalIQ.com ©2020

A key Battleground State is showing little change in the run-up to Election Day. In Michigan, the latest PoliticalIQ Poll shows former Vice President Joe Biden leading President Trump among Likely Voters, 51% to 44%.  That’s a slight one point drop for President Trump from earlier in the month.  The poll, conducted by Scott Rasmussen, found 3% voting for another candidate and 2% unsure.

Both campaigns have zeroed in on Michigan in their efforts to get out the vote.  With turnout so important, PoliticalIQ releases three separate models – Baseline, Strong Republican Turnout, and Strong Democratic Turnout.  This approach takes into account how modest differences in turnout can significantly impact election results.

In the case of Michigan, a Strong Republican Turnout would result in Biden holding a five point edge over President Trump, 50% to 45%.  That’s within the poll’s 3.5% margin of error.  Alternatively, a Strong Democratic Turnout paves the way for Biden to win comfortably, 53%- 42%.

With time running out in the 2020 campaign, PoliticalIQ will be releasing more poll results this weekend, including the latest from Florida.  In 2016, President Trump beat Hillary Clinton in Michigan by less than 1% point.

METHODOLOGY

The survey of 800 Likely Michigan Voters was conducted by Scott Rasmussen from October 27-29, 2020. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Most respondents were randomly selected from a list of Registered Voters and contacted via text or through a process of Random Digital Engagement. A total of 74 were contacted using automated phone polling techniques. The Likely Voter sample was derived from a larger sample of Registered Voters using screening questions and other factors. Certain quotas were applied to the larger sample and lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, and political party to reasonably reflect the state’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

Thirty-three percent (33%) of the Likely Voters either identify as Republican or Lean Republican. Thirty-seven percent (37%) either identify as a Democrat or Lean Democrat. Thirty percent (30%) do not identify with either major party.

The margin of sampling error for the full sample is +/- 3.5 percentage points.