UNITED STATES - OCTOBER 13: Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, is seen during a break in the Senate Judiciary Committee confirmation hearing for Supreme Court justice nominee Amy Coney Barrett in Washington on Tuesday, Oct. 13, 2020. (Photo by Caroline Brehman/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images)

In the race for Senate in Texas, Incumbent Republican John Cornyn leads Democratic Challenger MJ Hegar.  The Political IQ poll of Likely Texas Voters has Cornyn out in front of Hegar by 48% to 42%.  The poll, conducted by Scott Rasmussen, shows 2% voting for another candidate and 8% unsure. 

The coronavirus is on the rise across Texas, but especially in El Paso, where authorities are asking residents to stay at home. This pandemic adds to the difficulty in predicting voter turnout.  As such, all PoliticalIQ.com polls are released with three separate turnout models—a baseline projection, a Strong Republican Turnout model, and a Strong Democratic Turnout model.

In the Strong Democratic Model, Hegar pulls within two points of Cornyn, whose lead slips to 46%-44%.  That’s within the poll’s 3.5% margin of error. In the Strong Republican Turnout model, Cornyn increases his lead to 49%-41%.

This is the first credible challenge in the race for Senate for Cornyn, who is seeking his fourth term. Hegar is a US Air Force veteran, who was awarded a Purple Heart in 2009 after her helicopter was shot down in Afghanistan. Earlier we saw that President Trump is up by four points over former Vice President Biden in Texas 50%-46%. The Lone Star State has 38 Electoral Votes.

As we head into the last weekend before the election, PoliticalIQ.com will have the latest from key Battleground States including Michigan and Florida.

METHODOLOGY

The survey of 800 Likely Texas Voters was conducted by Scott Rasmussen from October 27-28, 2020. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Respondents were randomly selected from a list of Registered Voters and contacted via text or through a process of Random Digital Engagement.  The Likely Voter sample was derived from a larger sample of Registered Voters using screening questions and other factors. Certain quotas were applied to the larger sample and lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, and political party to reasonably reflect the state’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

Forty-nine percent (49%) of the Likely Voters either identify as Republican or Lean Republican. Forty-four percent (44%) either identify as a Democrat or Lean Democrat. Seven percent (7%) do not identify with either major party.

The margin of sampling error for the full sample is +/- 3.5 percentage points.