With Joe Biden as President-elect, 46% of Georgia voters believe it is more important to have Republicans control the Senate to serve as a check on the president. However, a Political IQ survey found that 42% take the opposite view. They think it is more important for Democrats to control the Senate so they can work with the president.
The survey, conducted by Scott Rasmussen, found that 7% say it doesn’t matter and 4% are not sure.
In a separate, open-ended question, 7% of voters said their top issue was to keep Republican control of the Senate. Three percent (3%) said winning control for the Democrats was their primary motivation. Further results from the open-ended question will be released later this week.
On a partisan basis, 15% of Independent voters say it doesn’t really matter. So do 8% of Democrats and 3% of Republicans.
These results are based upon a sample of 1,377 “Likely Voters.” For purposes of this survey, likely voters were defined as those who say they are at least somewhat likely to vote. Seventy-nine percent (79%) of the respondents said they will definitely vote. Twelve percent (12%) are very likely to vote while 8% are just somewhat likely to participate.
At this moment, the January 5 election appears to be very competitive and is likely to come down to voter turnout. Eighty-four percent (84%) of Republicans say they will definitely vote. So do 80% of Democrats and 69% of unaffiliated voters.
Among those who will definitely vote, 49% want Republican control of the Senate while 41% want to see the Democrats in charge.
In terms of its impact on their own life, 74% rate the run-off elections as Very Important. That assessment comes from 82% of Republicans, 76% of Democrats, and 55% of unaffiliated voters.
Older voters are more likely than others to see the election as Very Important and to say they will definitely vote.
As the week unfolds, Political IQ will release data on the favorability ratings of the candidates, the issues voters see as most important, and an early measure of the horse race. We are deliberately presenting the horse race results last because they are the least important part of the survey yet always garner the most attention.
This is consistent with an approach advocated by Scott Rasmussen to address the deep problems plaguing the election forecasting industry. He suggested that public pollsters should focus less on the horse race and “offer more data designed to help forecasters and politicians understand America.” He added that polls “should offer a voter-centric view of the race, measuring underlying attitudes more than attempting to define likely voters. We should certainly ask about the horse race, but never forget that elections are supposed to be more about the voters than the candidates.”
Political IQ will release one more survey of the race in mid-December.
The survey of 1,377 Likely Voters in Georgia was conducted by Scott Rasmussen from November 19-24, 2020. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Respondents were contacted online or via text. They were selected from a list of Registered Voters and through a process of Random Digital Engagement. A total of 1,500 Registered Voters were interviewed and asked about their likelihood of voting. For purposes of this survey, likely voters were defined as those who say they are at least somewhat likely to vote. Certain quotas were applied and the sample was lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, and political party to reasonably reflect the state’s population. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population. The margin of sampling error: +/- 2.6 percentage points.