With less than three weeks left to go before the Presidential Election, former Vice President Joe Biden is leading President Trump among likely voters in Michigan. PoliticalIQ’s latest poll shows 48% of Likely Michigan Voters are pro Biden, while 42% support Trump. The survey, conducted by Scott Rasmussen, shows that 4% support other candidates and 5% say they are not sure.
As of Monday, the Michigan Secretary of State’s office said nearly 2.8 million absentee ballots had been requested in the state, with almost 1 million already being returned. With voter turnout key, PoliticalIQ releases three separate turnout models – Baseline, Strong Republican Turnout, and Strong Democratic Turnout. This approach incorporates how modest differences in turnout can significantly impact election results.
In the case of Michigan, a Strong Republican Turnout would result in Biden holding a slight edge over President Trump, 46% to 44%. In this scenario, women contribute to Biden maintaining his lead, with 49% of women favoring the Former Vice President and 39% favoring President Trump. A Strong Democratic Turnout paves the way for Biden to win comfortably, 51%- 39%.
PoliticalIQ will be releasing new Battleground State Polls every weekday between now and Election Day. In 2016, President Trump beat Hillary Clinton in Michigan by less than 1% point.
Additional data from the Michigan survey will be released soon on the Senate race and how the state views Michigan Governor Whitmer.
The survey of 800 Likely Michigan Voters was conducted by Scott Rasmussen from October 8-13, 2020. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Respondents were randomly selected from a list of Registered Voters and contacted via text or through a process of Random Digital Engagement. The Likely Voter sample was derived from a larger sample of Registered Voters using screening questions and other factors. Certain quotas were applied to the larger sample and lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, and political party to reasonably reflect the state’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.
Thirty-one percent (31%) of the Likely Voters either identify as Republican or Lean Republican. Thirty-six percent (36%) either identify as a Democrat or Lean Democrat. Thirty-three percent (33%) do not identify with either major party.
The margin of sampling error for the full sample is +/- 3.5 percentage points.
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