People cast their ballots at an early voting location in Phoenix, Arizona on October 16, 2020. - Arizona has not elected a Democrat since Bill Clinton's second win in 1996, but is undergoing major demographic changes. The state best known abroad for the Grand Canyon is seeing a rapid growth in urban areas, among young college-educated voters, and in its robust Latino community -- groups that tend to favor the Democratic Party. But key to next month's election is that the average Arizona voter, whether Republican or Democrat, tends to be more moderate and is "tired of the President's behavior and the rhetoric coming from his campaign," according to Arizona State University politics lecturer Gina Woodall. (Photo by Robyn Beck / AFP) (Photo by ROBYN BECK/AFP via Getty Images)

In a key state for the President, Likely Arizona Voters show the candidates neck and neck with two weeks to go before the election.  The latest PolitcalIQ poll shows former Vice President Joe Biden with a one point lead over President Trump, 47% to 46%.  That’s well within the survey’s margin of error. The PoliticalIQ.com poll, conducted by Scott Rasmussen, shows 3% plan to vote for some other candidate and 5% are not sure.

Voter turnout will be key in determining the next President of the United States.  As such, all PoliticalIQ.com polls are released with three separate turnout models—a baseline projection, a Strong Republican Turnout model, and a Strong Democratic Turnout model. This approach shows how heavy turnout for one candidate could affect results.

In the case of Arizona, The Strong Republican Turnout model shows President Trump with a slim 2-point lead, 47% to 45%.  Alternatively, if Democratic turnout is stronger than the baseline projection, Biden’s lead would stretch to five points, 49% to 44%.

This is the third Battleground State where the president trails slightly but pulls ahead on the Strong Republican Turnout Model, with the other two states being FL and NC. The fact that these three states are so close has to be concerning for the president’s re-election team. To be re-elected, the president absolutely has to win FL and NC. And he probably has to win AZ as well. It could happen, but this poll highlights the uphill battle facing the president.

PoliticalIQ.com will be releasing additional data from the Arizona poll shortly, including how the Senate race is shaping up and how that could affect the balance of power nationally. New Battleground State polls will also be released every weekday until Election Day.  

Methodology

The survey of 800 Likely Arizona Voters was conducted by Scott Rasmussen from October 14-19, 2020. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Respondents were randomly selected from a list of Registered Voters and contacted via text or through a process of Random Digital Engagement. The Likely Voter sample was derived from a larger sample of Registered Voters using screening questions and other factors. Certain quotas were applied to the larger sample and lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, and political party to reasonably reflect the state’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

Thirty-eight percent (38%) of the Likely Voters either identify as Republican or Lean Republican. Thirty-five percent (35%) either identify as a Democrat or Lean Democrat. Twenty-seven percent (27%) do not identify with either major party.

The margin of sampling error for the full sample is +/- 3.5 percentage points. 

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