In the state of Florida, former Vice President Joe Biden maintains a narrow two-point lead over President Trump. The latest PoliticalIQ.com poll shows little change from two weeks earlier. The survey, conducted by Scott Rasmussen, shows that 1% plan to vote for some other candidate and another 1% are not sure. Of note, this poll was taken before the 2nd Presidential debate. PoliticalIQ will release a post-debate, Florida Presidential poll later this week.
Turnout is always difficult predict in a poll, especially in the case of a surging pandemic. As a result, all PoliticalIQ.com polls are released with three separate turnout models—a baseline projection, a Strong Republican Turnout model, and a Strong Democratic Turnout model. This approach highlights the reality that modest differences in turnout can have a very significant impact on election results.
The Strong Republican Turnout model shows President Trump narrowly winning the Sunshine State’s Electoral College votes by two points: 50% to 48%. If Democratic turnout is stronger than baseline, Biden would win comfortably by six points, 52% to 46%.
PoliticalIQ.com will be releasing new polls every weekday until Election Day. With 29 Electoral Votes, Florida is considered a must-win state for President Trump.
The survey of 800 Likely Florida Voters was conducted by Scott Rasmussen from October 20-22, 2020. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Most respondents were randomly selected from a list of Registered Voters and contacted via text or through a process of Random Digital Engagement. A total of 71 were contacted using automated phone polling techniques. The Likely Voter sample was derived from a larger sample of Registered Voters using screening questions and other factors. Certain quotas were applied to the larger sample and lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, and political party to reasonably reflect the state’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.
Forty-three percent (43%) of the Likely Voters either identify as Republican or Lean Republican. Thirty-nine percent (39%) either identify as a Democrat or Lean Democrat. Eighteen percent (18%) do not identify with either major party.
The margin of sampling error for the full sample is +/- 3.5 percentage points.
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