In Michigan, Democrat incumbent Senator Gary Peters leads Republican challenger John James in the final weekend before Election Day. The PoliticalIQ poll has Peters in front of James among Likely Voters, 50% to 41%. The poll, conducted by Scott Rasmussen, shows 3% voting for some other candidate and 6% not sure. The poll’s margin of error is 3.5%
Despite the lead in the polls, Republicans are not giving up. The Senate Leadership Fund, aligned with Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, is reportedly dropping $4.6 million dollars into the race in a sign Republicans feel they can still turn things around. This is James’ second run for Senate. He lost to incumbent Debbie Stabenow in 2018. Peters was elected to the Senate in 2014, the only non-incumbent Democrat to win a Senate seat that year.
With a pandemic raging, it’s especially difficult to predict voter turnout. As a result, all PoliticalIQ.com polls are released with three separate turnout models—a baseline projection, a Strong Republican Turnout model, and a Strong Democratic Turnout model.
Even in a Strong Republican Turnout model, Peters maintains a six-point lead over James, 48% to 42%. Alternatively, if the Democratic Turnout is stronger than baseline, Peters expands his lead to a comfortable 52% to 39%. In the race for President in Michigan, PoliticalIQ has former Vice President Joe Biden leading President Trump 51% to 44%.
With precious few days until the election, PoliticalIQ.com will be releasing a final Florida Presidential poll tomorrow morning.
The survey of 800 Likely Michigan Voters was conducted by Scott Rasmussen from October 27-29, 2020. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Most respondents were randomly selected from a list of Registered Voters and contacted via text or through a process of Random Digital Engagement. A total of 74 were contacted using automated phone polling techniques. The Likely Voter sample was derived from a larger sample of Registered Voters using screening questions and other factors. Certain quotas were applied to the larger sample and lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, and political party to reasonably reflect the state’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.
Thirty-three percent (33%) of the Likely Voters either identify as Republican or Lean Republican. Thirty-seven percent (37%) either identify as a Democrat or Lean Democrat. Thirty percent (30%) do not identify with either major party.
The margin of sampling error for the full sample is +/- 3.5 percentage points.
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