A Political IQ survey of 1,696 Registered Voters in Georgia found that 78% have either voted already or definitely plan to vote in the January 5 Senate election.
That total includes 85% of those who voted for President Trump in November and 85% of those who voted for President-elect Joe Biden. The small number who voted for a third option and many who did not vote in November are less likely to participate in January. Among those voters in the survey who cast a ballot in November, 49% voted for Biden and 48% for Trump.
The survey found that 77% of those likely to vote in January plan to cast their ballots early. There is a significant gap on the timing issue suggesting the Democrats will have the advantage in early voting while Republicans will do better on Election Day itself. That is similar to what happened around the country on Election Day in November.
For the January 5 Senate race in Georgia, 33% of Trump voters say they will vote in person on Election Day. Just 16% of Biden voters say the same. White voters, Republicans, and Rural voters are more likely than others to cast their ballots on Election Day.
Over the next few day, Political IQ will release additional data from the survey. That will include update information on the favorability ratings of the candidates, which party voters want to control the Senate, perceptions of the president’s legal challenges, and the horse race. We are deliberately presenting the horse race results last because they are the least important part of the survey yet always garner the most attention.
This is consistent with an approach advocated by Scott Rasmussen to address the deep problems plaguing the election forecasting industry. He suggested that public pollsters should focus less on the horse race and “offer more data designed to help forecasters and politicians understand America.” He added that polls “should offer a voter-centric view of the race, measuring underlying attitudes more than attempting to define likely voters. We should certainly ask about the horse race, but never forget that elections are supposed to be more about the voters than the candidates.”
The survey of 1,696 Registered Voters in Georgia was conducted by Scott Rasmussen from December 8-14, 2020. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Most respondents were contacted online or via text. They were selected from a list of Registered Voters and through a process of Random Digital Engagement. Additionally, 74 of the respondents were contacted via automated phone polling techniques. The sample included 1,417 voters deemed to be Likely Voters. For purposes of this survey, Likely Voters were defined as those who say they have voted, will definitely vote, or are very likely. Certain other screening questions were used as well. Quotas were applied to Registered Voter sample which was ten lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, and political party to reasonably reflect the state’s population. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population. The margin of sampling error for the full sample is +/- 2.46 percentage points. For responses based upon Likely Voters, the margin of sampling error is +/- 2.6 percentage points.